David Cordell
Short Selling
If you know all about, or don't care about, the investment concept of short selling, skip this post!!!
At the risk of seeming pedantic -----
In going through some of my school files, I ran across this item that I posted for my students last January.
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As I watch the stock market today, January 29, 2021, Game Stop's stock price is up by 74% for the day. It has gone from $19 one month ago to $335 today. It almost hit $500 during the trading day yesterday. What's happening?
Selling Short
Have you heard the phrase, "Don't sell yourself short"? Do you know what it means?
Well, in the common vernacular, it means, "Don't underestimate (or undervalue)  yourself."
Under the category "Misc. videos" in the left margin of the class webpage, I have posted three short videos (less than a minute) that use some form of the term "sell short".
- Hillary Clinton, referring to President Obama. (Crank up the volume)
- The movie Moontruck with Cher and Nicholas Cage. (Really good movie. See if you can find it.)
- A TV program about outlaw Jesse James.
Where does the term "sell short" come from?
Selling short is an activity in investing. Here is a brief explanation.
Normally, when we think a stock price will increase, we try to make money in stocks by buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price. But what if we think the stock price will go down? How can we make money?
One answer is through a short sale. Note that being "long" in a stock means that you own some of that stock. Being "short" in a stock means that you don't own the stock. In fact, you owe stock to someone else. Huh??
Here's an example of how a short sale works, with some simplifications.
- You think the stock's price will fall significantly. It is currently trading for $50.
- You borrow 100 shares through your broker. Not the dollar amount -- the number of shares. There is a fee associated with this.
- You sell the stock for $5,000.
- You are now "short" the stock.
- You turn out to be right, and the stock price goes down to $40.
- You buy back the shares for $4,000.
- You return the 100 shares to the broker.
- You pocket the difference between the amount you sold it for and the amount you bought it back for, i.e. $1,000 less fees.
Are these short sellers bad people for betting that the stock will go down? Well, they may be bad people for other reasons, but they serve a purpose. When they think stock price valuations are higher than justified, their sale of borrowed stock increases the supply of the stock relative to the demand. If there are enough short sellers, the price falls to a more reasonable level. Their actions make stock valuations more efficient.
The downside for a short seller is if the stock price goes up instead of down. If the price in the example above had gone up to $60, the short seller would have lost $1,000. Not only that, but the profits on a short sale are limited because the stock price can only go down to zero, but its upside is unlimited. In other words, the maximum gain is 100%, but the maximum loss is unlimited.
A big issue with Game Stop is that many hedge fund managers and other big investors sold Game Stop short. In fact the "short interest" in Game Stop was 140% on December 31. That means that more shares were sold short than the actual number of shares!
Apparently, a lot of relatively small investors, communicating through websites, decided to go long in Game Stop, knowing that there was very large short interest. This caused the price to go up. All the sudden, the short sellers were under water. They had to buy back the shares to keep from losing even more money. They were in a "short squeeze" and had to buy back the stock at ever-increasing prices.
A very interesting incident involving short selling occurred in the 1860s involving Daniel Drew and Cornelius Vanderbilt (two-great grandfather of the late designer Gloria Vanderbilt and three-great grandfather of newscaster Anderson Cooper). I have read that, relative to the US gross domestic product, Vanderbilt was the second richest man in American history, second only to John D . Rockefeller, founder of Standard Oil. Here is the Wikipedia description of the Drew-Vanderbilt event.
In 1864, Drew once again struggled with Vanderbilt, speculating on the stock of the New York and Harlem Railroad. Drew was selling the stock short, but Vanderbilt and his associates bought every share he sold, ultimately causing the stock price to rise from 90 to 285 in five months. Drew lost $500,000.
Of course, $500,000 in 1864 was an unbelievably large amount. Licking his wounds, Drew is said to have lamented, "He who sells what isn't his'n must buy it back or go to prison."
I posted a more involved description of a short squeeze in the handouts. "Short Sale - What exactly is a short squeeze?"
If you want to see a more visual, dramatized version, watch the movie The Big Short with Christian Bale, Steve Carrell, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, and Marisa Tomei. It relates to the mortgage market rather than the stock market, but the effect is the same.
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